The Project requires you to undertake an investigation into a topic in International Finance
ie Devise a question >>> Get the data >>> Carry out the tests >>> Report the results
In sum, you have to:
• choose the subject
• construct a question relevant to the subject
• devise a plan of research
• complete a pro forma and get it signed.
• carry out the plan as in the pro forma.
The end result need not be especially long – by consulting effectively with me you will avoid the main pitfalls
Devise question >>> Get the data >>> Carry out the tests >>> Report the results
This is NOT a test of your numerical ability. Projects with regressions can get low marks for badly explained models, poorly analysed results etc; projects with no more than histograms and averages can get high marks for well explained and relevant analysis. The tools you use do not determine your marks.
The project is executed at the terminal, that is why you can complete it in the given timetable. DO NOT “write off” for information.
If you get in a mess with the numbers, consult with me so do not worry. Consultation is part of the exercise. NO MARKS ARE DEDUCTED BECAUSE OF ASSISTANCE. Consultation is a strength not a weakness.
Choice of subject
subject areas: (this will make more sense when you have studied the subject areas!)
Generally, find an area and think small.
Areas chosen by previous projects in rough order of popularity, but not merit, are:
1) PPP theory, variations are choosing different: countries, time periods, indices, lags, periodicity (i.e. monthly quarterly etc), expectations.
2) IFE theory, variations are choosing different: countries, time periods, indices, lags, periodicity (i.e. monthly quarterly etc), expectations.
3) Market efficiency, runs tests.
4) Forward rates (you will have to ask me for the data).
5) Exchange rate variation and correlation tests with each other and with Stock Market returns.
6) Balance of payments and the exchange rate.
The pro forma…
Pro Forma This form with my comments must be included as part of your project - keep it to 1 page – how good or bad it is does not affect your mark but it will affect how well you can complete the project. (submit via Turnitin on Blackboard )
It is not possible to “plan as you go along” - you need a clear idea as to what you want to achieve before you begin your project. This “idea” must be as clearly specified as possible. The Pro Forma is intended to help in this process and to enable me to offer guidance. Complete the form as fully as possible – even for those sections you feel are less relevant to your particular choice of topic.
1. Central Question
An example: Is ABC caused by X + Y –Z? (do not be vague here, be as precise as possible)
2. Significance for International Finance
Knowledge of the causes of ABC will help multinational firms/countries plan their DEF…and a tiny bit more
3. How will you test your question?
For the UK , Germany, and the USA I will obtain ABC, X,Y,and Z for the years VVVV to WWWW (brief reason for choosing those years and brief reason for choosing the countries)
4. What will your test establish?
Whether or not X,Y and Z are related to ABC for these countries over these years + something on the limitations of the test.
5. Data required for the Test
ABC,X,Y and Z for the years VVVV to WWWW
6. Source of Data
Should be from ESDS or Datastream or Commercial sources give preference to our own data sources any problems see me!
full details in attachment.
End of project notes
Consider it done professionally. Thanks..........................................................................................!
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