Forecast hourly energy consumption for a certain period of time

Tableau de clarification publique

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  kmsndp

  • il y a 7 ans

  Respected Sir,
  I have commented on my entry #29
  Request you to plz check and reply me..
  Thanks in advance,
  SANDEEP.

  • il y a 7 ans
• 

  Kunhahammad

  • il y a 7 ans

  Can you give me chance,I will find out a solution.........

  • il y a 7 ans
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  antonatkachev

  • il y a 7 ans

  I am now ready with my entry but I can't submit because the contest is closed. If you are still interested I could email it to you for your consideration. In case you've already chosen the winner I do not pretend to get any prize. Just I did the great work to prepare and I feel upset that it can't be used for anything. Please contact me if you are still interested.

  • il y a 7 ans
  1. 

     TheGuyver2040

     • il y a 7 ans

     Rather than exchange contact information and risk account suspension/termination, Scringhelteamsrl can simply extend the contest deadline. Problem solved.

     • il y a 7 ans
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  antonatkachev

  • il y a 7 ans

  SSA is novel model-free approach to time series analysis. This technique has impressive potential for forecasting of stationary processes such as hourly energy consumption in particular. It is widely used for stock prices analysis and forecasting. Also the method is successfully applied to climatic processes, e.g. geological activity and volcanoes' eruptions forecasting.
  
  As my professional interest lies in the field of maths I have developed SSA toolkit for my work purposes and tested it on multiple problems.
  
  Right now I am working on your data. I'll submit the results shortly. Thank you for the opportunity to participate in the contest.

  • il y a 7 ans
  Voir 1 message de plus
  1. 
     Titulaire du concours

     • il y a 7 ans

     You did not applied after all?

     • il y a 7 ans
  2. 

     antonatkachev

     • il y a 7 ans

     Dear Sir

     • il y a 7 ans
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  anru

  • il y a 7 ans

  This might be a stupid question, but... excel contains data for a single consumption point, correct? And it's one of 2000 in total? I think I read that somewhere in the comments, could be wrong, so, can you please verify?

  • il y a 7 ans
  1. 
     Titulaire du concours

     • il y a 7 ans

     The excel is indeed for just 1 consumption point and yes in the database might be even more than 2000 consumption points.

     • il y a 7 ans
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  Titulaire du concours

  • il y a 7 ans

  To all: Hourly Consumption history is into the SQL database and it gets updated on monthly basis. Also, the hourly forecast should end up into the database as well.

  • il y a 7 ans
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  Titulaire du concours

  • il y a 7 ans

  To all: please note that the forecast should take into account the winter - summer (last Sunday of October => the day has 25 hours) and summer - winter (last Sunday of March => the day has 23 hours) hour change. This should be made for EET this means that the hour change in March is hour 3 becomes hour 4 (so the day has 23 hours) and in October is hour 4 becomes hour 3 (so the day has 25 hours). For March, in the last Sunday of the month, for hour 03-04 the forecast should be 0. For October, in the last Sunday of the month, there should be 25 hours of forecast, of 24 hours but the hour 03-04 should be doubled.

  • il y a 7 ans
  1. 
     Titulaire du concours

     • il y a 7 ans

     "of 24 hours but the hour 03-04 should be doubled." = or 24 hours but the hour 03-04 should be doubled.

     • il y a 7 ans
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  Titulaire du concours

  • il y a 7 ans

  To all: Please note that the forecast should be made hourly, as the consumption history data is. So, for example if we make a forecast for 02.02.2015, the forecast should be made for hours 1-24 for 02.2015.

  • il y a 7 ans
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  Titulaire du concours

  • il y a 7 ans

  #6 Please write something. The picture you shared is to small to distinguish something. Please describe your forecasting logic.

  • il y a 7 ans
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  Titulaire du concours

  • il y a 7 ans

  #8 Please use english. I do not understand the language you used.

  • il y a 7 ans
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  kmsndp

  • il y a 7 ans

  Request you to kindly comment on my entry, so that I can move forward for the final submission.. Thanks in advance, #7

  • il y a 7 ans
  1. 
     Titulaire du concours

     • il y a 7 ans

     hi. Thx for your proposal. Lest assume we are making a forecast for the period 02.02.2015 - 09.02.2015. Will the forecast for 02.02.2015 and 09.02.2015 for the Hour 0-1 be the same? If yes, this is our current forecast mechanism and is ok but it is not good enough - it has many forecasts errors. If you go for this path you should take into account other factors as well such as daily consumption distribution in a month and other factors.

     • il y a 7 ans
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  vinaygupta88

  • il y a 7 ans

  I would integrate the excel with SQL database (using ODB data connection) to get the data cuts as we require and then provide a forecast which client can view in excel itself. I will do some cosmetic changes to excel file to give a finished product look like a dashboard. Excel will be completely automated and with a press of a button client should be able to view forecast.
  
  If client want the output on the GUI built on C# platform only then only we would need to either integrating the excel with C# or write a separate code in C# without using excel. I think best is to align with client the results first using excel and then we can use that algorithm to build in C#

  • il y a 7 ans
  1. 
     Titulaire du concours

     • il y a 7 ans

     We intend to use this algorithm to forecast consumption either for one consumption point of for several (or all) consumption points individually. By using a intermediary excel file means that for each consumption point we should populate the excel file first. This would be a slow process since forecasts should be made for 1 - 2000 consumption points in a single click by the application user. This will mean that we should do a loop that populates the excel for each of the 2000 consumption points from the database and then get the result from the excel and insert it into the database. This will be a very time consuming operation. Can you make your transport your mechanism from excel to SQL?

     • il y a 7 ans
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  freelanmohan7

  • il y a 7 ans

  What would you like to forecast? daily or hourly energy consumption? 90 days could be long for certain algorithms. What are the minimum days you would like to forecast.

  • il y a 7 ans
  1. 
     Titulaire du concours

     • il y a 7 ans

     The forecast should be hourly, as the consumption information is. The algorithm should have a minimum of 1 day forecast and a maximum of 90 days. If you feel that your algorithm does not work for 90, we can accept a forecast algorithm that works for a period of maximum 1 month.

     • il y a 7 ans
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  rahulpattar

  • il y a 7 ans

  For your point #2 : Where is that information stored? The type of consumer and their consumption patterns. The excel you have attached is only consumption and not the consumer and consumption type. I would write a stored procedure which accepts the number of days of forecast and return the forecast based on the data available. All the business logic will be in db.

  • il y a 7 ans
  1. 
     Titulaire du concours

     • il y a 7 ans

     Hi. All information is stored into the database. True, I gave only the consumption history. As new consumption is added our application creates monthly consumption profiles for each consumer. Hope this answers your question.

     • il y a 7 ans
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  Titulaire du concours

  • il y a 7 ans

  #4 - Please specify your solution with explanation. I cannot see anything in the pictures provided.

  • il y a 7 ans
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  Titulaire du concours

  • il y a 7 ans

  #2 - Please specify how you think we could use your Excel mechanism integrated into C# taking into account that all of our historical data is stored into a MS SQL Database.

  • il y a 7 ans
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  jeehosong

  • il y a 7 ans

  What kinds of energy do you prefer?

  • il y a 7 ans
  Voir 2 messages supplémentaires
  1. 

     jeehosong

     • il y a 7 ans

     Thanks. Then should I implement the six problems?

     • il y a 7 ans
  2. 
     Titulaire du concours

     • il y a 7 ans

     yes.

     • il y a 7 ans
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  Dovvosoft

  • il y a 7 ans

  I am participating, will submit my application architecture by EOD tomorrow.

  • il y a 7 ans
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  antonatkachev

  • il y a 7 ans

  I am participating in the contest

  • il y a 7 ans
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  cugamelover

  • il y a 7 ans

  I will work on my entry and submit it later

  • il y a 7 ans