Freelancer : kmsndp
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Entry 2 - Consumption Forecast

Hi sir..I have completed the project. Below is the dropbox link for all the files. For any queries, request you to kindly private message me so that I can explain to you better and in full detail.. https://www.dropbox.com/sh/l861wdz6mqy63dz/AADkG5zSWlijorsiuryBW_Qua?dl=0 Thanks in advance, SANDEEP KM.


                                                                                                                        Proposition n°                                            29
                                         du concours                                             Forecast hourly energy consumption for a certain period of time
Proposition n°29

Tableau de clarification publique

  • kmsndp
    kmsndp
    • il y a 7 ans

    Thanks for ur reply sir..I'll send u the forecast asap..mail id noted.. :)

    • il y a 7 ans
  • scringhelteamsrl
    Titulaire du concours
    • il y a 7 ans

    Now I am analysing the errors so I can decide who is that someone that we will award the contest to, so, if you can send your forecast in the next 11 hours that will be great. For us to see your forecast faster, you can send it to mihai.darzan [ a t ] ringhel.ro

    • il y a 7 ans
  • scringhelteamsrl
    Titulaire du concours
    • il y a 7 ans

    hi. I have to award the contest in the next 11 hours otherwise the prise will be split amongst participants, but I want to award the contest to someone. I already have some good propositions

    • il y a 7 ans
  • kmsndp
    kmsndp
    • il y a 7 ans

    My algo here has no restriction on the no. of forecast days..but the problem is the algo just takes mean values to forecast..to get an error free solution,,we need to use something bigger than this..like exponential smoothing etc..currently which I'm struggling with..but i wrote an algo to do the same..need to code in vb.net..which is taking a lot of time and patience..if u can give me one more day..I'll give the updated solution using third degree regression and trend forecast..So, I kindly request you to just give me a reply so that I can complete the work with ease asap..Thanks in advance

    • il y a 7 ans
  • scringhelteamsrl
    Titulaire du concours
    • il y a 7 ans

    I need the forecast for 01.01.2014 - 31.03.2014 so I can compare your forecast to the actual consumption so I can determine the average error. That will be the criteria for determining the winning proposal (entry)

    • il y a 7 ans
  • kmsndp
    kmsndp
    • il y a 7 ans

    To get forecast values..just load data and enter first table name in the column(It has the data given by u)..and select a time period..and chose destination folder for the excel file..click ok

    • il y a 7 ans
  • scringhelteamsrl
    Titulaire du concours
    • il y a 7 ans

    hi, I received the data from you but I can not figure out what is the forecast

    • il y a 7 ans
  • kmsndp
    kmsndp
    • il y a 7 ans

    It will show the points available and tables available in the database..I added an extra table hourdata2..just to check whether it is checking and displaying correct result.

    • il y a 7 ans
  • kmsndp
    kmsndp
    • il y a 7 ans

    Request you to plz have a look..as of now..the final solution uses mdb access database..but we can edit it as SQL server connection..just copy the mdb file to C: drive and just press load data on the GUI

    • il y a 7 ans
  • kmsndp
    kmsndp
    • il y a 7 ans

    https://www.dropbox.com/sh/lokxkaipecq274e/AABYfhYJ6ehpdQXNiKI_hxpfa?dl=0

    • il y a 7 ans
  • kmsndp
    kmsndp
    • il y a 7 ans

    Hi..can u please respond..whether u need the project to be completed?..I can give u the result in one day max..

    • il y a 7 ans
  • kmsndp
    kmsndp
    • il y a 7 ans

    Request you to kindly reply me asap..Thanks in advance..

    • il y a 7 ans
  • kmsndp
    kmsndp
    • il y a 7 ans

    There is no restriction for the no. of days of forecast needed in my algo..it can forecast at a minimum of 1 to any no. of days..

    • il y a 7 ans
  • kmsndp
    kmsndp
    • il y a 7 ans

    Here's the image of GUI i made in VB.NET..https://www.dropbox.com/s/vdbl232t2um5jy9/2.png?dl=0

    • il y a 7 ans
  • kmsndp
    kmsndp
    • il y a 7 ans

    Respected Sir,
    Request you to kindly respond whether should I complete the task or have you selected any other entry..I have actually completed the project..but my prediction algo is showing values which are much far from actual values..which is why I started exploring few forecasting methods such as SSA, NN etc..But to know whether my work wil be considered, I request your confirmation..Thanks in advance sir..

    • il y a 7 ans
  • kmsndp
    kmsndp
    • il y a 7 ans

    Code written upto now.. https://www.dropbox.com/s/irns2z6l181hg46/Imports%20System.pdf?dl=0

    • il y a 7 ans
  • kmsndp
    kmsndp
    • il y a 7 ans

    Hi sir..I started coding the project in VB.NET..able to connect SQL Server Database into the algo and ADDRESS ALL THE QUESTIONS U MENTIONED BELOW..I will submit the updated solution in 12-16 hrs..Thanks for you patience, SANDEEP

    • il y a 7 ans
  • kmsndp
    kmsndp
    • il y a 7 ans

    Hi..Do u need a date selector so that forecast can be made for specific range?

    • il y a 7 ans
  • kmsndp
    kmsndp
    • il y a 7 ans

    Thanks for your reply sir..wil give u an updated solution soon..

    • il y a 7 ans
  • scringhelteamsrl
    Titulaire du concours
    • il y a 7 ans

    can you provide a forecast for 01 - 03.2014, in a excel file in the same format as the provided consumption history, so we can compare with the actual consumption?

    • il y a 7 ans
  • scringhelteamsrl
    Titulaire du concours
    • il y a 7 ans

    4. The data is stored in a SQL database and we intend on implementing this new forecast mechanism on 2 projects. This one that is a desktop application with DB connection and a 2nd one that is a web based application with DB connection. It will be a great advantage if your solution could be implemented on Data base side. You could use CLR also (code in C#/Vb and import as CLR in MS SQL). It is not a real option to use excel files as data support.

    • il y a 7 ans
  • scringhelteamsrl
    Titulaire du concours
    • il y a 7 ans

    3. Some consumption points have monitoring data stored in a separate table (on the same format as the consumption data). Will your forecast manage to forecast looking at both the consumption and the monitoring information. The monitoring information is coming almost in real time regarding the consumption of a certain consumption point, but it is used just as confirmation of the consumption. The consumption data gets collected only once a month at the end of the month. So there is a difference and we could use it to our advantage.

    • il y a 7 ans
  • scringhelteamsrl
    Titulaire du concours
    • il y a 7 ans

    hi, thank you for your entry. I reviewed the files you sent me and I have a few questions. The forecast file you provided is for the period 01.01.2014-28.02.2014. For the month 01.2014 you have data for 61 days. What is with that? 2. You mentioned you are taking data from the last 5 years. Every consumption point has its own history. Some have data for the last 5 years, but some have data just for 1 month. Will your algorithm manage that?

    • il y a 7 ans

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