Forecast hourly energy consumption for a certain period of time

Freelancer : jabolsoft
Gagnant
Deuxième place
Refusé

Here's my take on presented problem.

Looks like the contest functionality is designed for graphics as the description field seems to be very limited. I'm attaching a screenshot of the full message. Any questions, let me know.

Proposition n°13

Tableau de clarification publique

• Titulaire du concours
• il y a 7 ans

Average error 67.85344684 %
Min error 0 %
Max error 732.6530612 %

• il y a 7 ans
• jabolsoft
• il y a 7 ans

As for the average error, as I can't calculate it for the period as attached, I'll let you analyse the data yourself. Long term part of the forecast(used by linear regression) might be a little off due to rather short period of training data available, but it should definitely be better than simply using the existing data. Also, it could be improved with any of the polynomial regression algorithms, though they'd require much more computational power.

• il y a 7 ans
• jabolsoft
• il y a 7 ans

I've added a pivoted sheet to the uploaded solution to replicate the input format so it should be usable, but if it makes it any easier, here's another spreadsheet where I've just pasted the generated predictions into your data: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2evklPX5Idea3VKNkUzdTBQdTQ/view?usp=sharing

• il y a 7 ans
• Titulaire du concours
• il y a 7 ans

can you upload your prediction in an excel file in the same format as the data provided so we can compare with the actual consumptions for jan-march 2014?

• il y a 7 ans
• Titulaire du concours
• il y a 7 ans

what is your average error for your forecast?

• il y a 7 ans
• jabolsoft
• il y a 7 ans

I've uploaded a forecast for January-March 2014 to https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2evklPX5IdeZEoyVXhQLURlSWM/view?usp=sharing

• il y a 7 ans
• jabolsoft
• il y a 7 ans

Hi. Sorry for the late reply, just saw the feedback section. I'll generate a sample forecast in a sec. Where would you like me to upload it?

• il y a 7 ans
• Titulaire du concours
• il y a 7 ans

Hi, thx for your entry. Interesting proposal. Can you provide a forecast example for us to analyse? Regarding forex trading, have you had any success with automated trading?

• il y a 7 ans