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Algorithm for forecast

I have captured the approach I am going to take to arrive at a solution. There will be a stored procedure (SP) to calculate the forecast. The SP will accept three parameters. I have made few assumptions as the source of availability is not confirmed. If I get more data I could arrive at more accurate solution.


                                                                                                                        Proposition n°                                            9
                                         du concours                                             Forecast hourly energy consumption for a certain period of time
Proposition n°9

Tableau de clarification publique

  • scringhelteamsrl
    Titulaire du concours
    • il y a 7 ans

    ok

    • il y a 7 ans
  • rahulpattar
    rahulpattar
    • il y a 7 ans

    I am updating the logic. Will send the entry by tomorrow. But yes, I am taking hourly average of the past data to forecast. I am thinking of a logic which will take care of weekdays and weekends too. Let me see if I can get near to what you are expecting.

    • il y a 7 ans
  • scringhelteamsrl
    Titulaire du concours
    • il y a 7 ans

    So, if I understand correctly, you will use the hourly average of past consumption as a forecast, taking into account Hour, Week day and Holidays? Is there any other forecasting logic you are thinking of implementing? We already have this logic implemented but it creates many errors (we have tested other logics but so far this created best results, but still not good enough).

    • il y a 7 ans
  • rahulpattar
    rahulpattar
    • il y a 7 ans

    Sorry if my wordings created confusion. But what I meant in the logic is, average of 1st hour for that day, average of 2nd hour of that day and so on till 24th hour. So if you are forecasting for a day (single day), then the 'temp' table will have 24 rows, each row for a hour of the day.

    • il y a 7 ans
  • scringhelteamsrl
    Titulaire du concours
    • il y a 7 ans

    I see you are making average of hours 1 to 24. I do no know how that fits into your forecasting logic (it might be ok) but you should know that the forecast should be made hourly, as the consumption data is, not daily. I will write a clarification on the Clarification Board also regarding this. You should take into account this also. This is very important. Also I am interested to know details on how the forecasting mechanism works.

    • il y a 7 ans

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