Forecasting Analysis
Hello team I have significant expertise in forecasting as I have implemented excel based forecast model for at least 10 clients. Forecasting is a 7 step process 1. Removing outlier from data 2. Identify seasonal effects 3. Removing seasonality and trend 4. Forecasting using exponential smoothing 5. Adding back seasonality and trend 6. Distributing daily forecast into hourly forecast 7. Producing hourly forecast I have forcasted for 3 months in 2014. I am not able to share that file? Should I mail it to you? Forecast will improve once we have holiday information, external variables and missing data (May-Jun 2011). We would need to freeze on significant external parameter using regression analysis. Advantage: Easy to implement Good accuracy Disadvantage Equal weight age to all historical data Model will be built into excel which can be integrated to the C# plateform. I will also use VBA programming to automate all the steps I am ready to have a detailed call if that helps
